* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* FELIX AL062007 09/02/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 97 102 106 113 115 119 117 115 111 108 106
V (KT) LAND 85 91 97 102 106 113 115 119 117 63 45 42 40
V (KT) LGE mod 85 93 99 105 109 117 121 122 123 67 40 62 76
SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 2 1 3 3 7 2 5 2 3 4 8
SHEAR DIR 11 43 133 49 23 243 351 228 65 151 71 119 13
SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 150 150 149 150 156 159 157 157 160 158
ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 155 156 154 152 149 153 153 150 149 149 146
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 11 10 10 12 9 12 8 12 9 13 10
700-500 MB RH 61 61 58 61 63 62 60 64 66 65 64 62 65
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 6 5 5
850 MB ENV VOR 40 44 46 49 48 36 23 24 13 16 10 18 15
200 MB DIV 28 48 26 35 33 35 16 29 15 22 0 59 37
LAND (KM) 125 108 178 311 383 343 72 52 47 -159 0 119 171
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.6 18.6 19.5 20.5
LONG(DEG W) 69.3 71.1 72.9 74.8 76.6 80.0 83.1 85.7 87.8 89.7 91.7 93.4 95.0
STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 18 17 16 14 12 10 10 10 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 59 61 71 65 52 87 34 81 81 9999 35 32 33
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 5. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 28. 30. 34. 32. 31. 28. 26. 23.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 17. 21. 28. 30. 34. 32. 30. 26. 23. 21.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/02/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 43% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/02/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY