* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL982007 09/02/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 30 32 34 35 35
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 30 32 34 35 35
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 20 21 23 23 23
SHEAR (KTS) 23 22 22 19 23 25 20 16 12 15 23 23 23
SHEAR DIR 112 96 97 97 96 126 120 115 79 91 66 91 68
SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 124 125 127 130 136 137 137 134 132 132 133
ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 119 120 122 126 132 134 134 130 128 126 127
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10
700-500 MB RH 51 49 46 47 45 44 48 49 48 49 50 49 52
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 35 26 15 10 -1 -22 -4 3 10 17 19 3 6
200 MB DIV 9 22 16 0 -4 -29 -50 -21 -27 -4 -6 1 -25
LAND (KM) 1625 1548 1473 1403 1333 1181 1052 950 874 852 838 862 829
LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.3 12.0 12.6 13.3 13.8
LONG(DEG W) 38.7 39.6 40.4 41.1 41.8 43.3 44.8 46.3 47.8 49.3 50.9 52.4 54.0
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 9 8 10 12 15 17 23 31 33 29 34 35 42
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -13. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 09/02/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 09/02/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY