*   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *        GOES INPUT INCLUDED                *
                    *  GIL         EP102007  09/02/07  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    19    18    18    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND       20    19    18    18    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGE mod    20    18    17    16    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS

SHEAR (KTS)        6     5     3     5     5     4     6     4    13    14    22    18    16
SHEAR DIR         91   100   157   206   282   241   302   269   292   283   288   288   284
SST (C)         25.7  25.4  25.1  24.7  24.2  23.7  23.6  23.5  23.5  23.7  23.9  24.0  24.1
POT. INT. (KT)   119   116   113   109   104    99    98    97    97    99   101   102   102
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0
TH_E DEV (C)       4     4     4     3     4     3     3     3     3     4     3     4     4
700-500 MB RH     56    53    55    52    51    50    49    46    46    40    35    30    28
GFS VTEX (KT)      7     7     6     6     5     5     3  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    28    24    29    33    21    29    26    27    12    -6     0    -9    -6
200 MB DIV       -18   -31   -25    -8   -18   -11     1    -8   -19   -34   -11    -1   -14
LAND (KM)       1270  1312  1358  1411  1467  1599  1756  1919  2067  1987  1801  1618  1491
LAT (DEG N)     19.6  19.8  19.9  20.1  20.3  20.5  20.4  20.4  20.5  20.7  21.1  21.5  22.0
LONG(DEG W)    123.7 124.5 125.2 126.1 126.9 128.6 130.3 132.1 134.0 135.8 137.6 139.4 140.7
STM SPEED (KT)     8     7     8     8     8     8     8     9     8     9     9     8     6

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/  8      CX,CY:  -7/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  525  (MEAN=582)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  14.3 (MEAN=18.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  14.0 (MEAN=65.9)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   2.   4.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   4.   5.   8.   9.  11.  10.   9.   7.   5.   3.
  PERSISTENCE           -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -3.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -9.  -9.  -9.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE      -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. -13. -13.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  GOES IR STD DEV        2.   4.   5.   6.   8.   9.   8.   6.   5.   4.   4.   4.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT   -1.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -5.  -2.   0.  -1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.   1.   3.   2.   4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)     -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -5. -10. -12. -12. -10. -10. -11.  -9.

   ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL        09/02/07  12 UTC **
                    ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  -5.0 Range: -20.0 to  45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   4.8 Range:  18.5 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : -20.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  92.3 Range:  37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.2 Range:  65.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:   4.0 Range:  26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  14.3 Range:  38.3 to   5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 
 Scaled RI index=   2.6 Prob of RI=   3% is   0.3 times the sample mean(13%)
 Discrim RI index=  3.3 Prob of RI=  13% is   1.0 times the sample mean(13%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL        09/02/07  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY