* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GIL EP102007 09/02/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 3 5 5 4 6 4 13 14 22 18 16 SHEAR DIR 91 100 157 206 282 241 302 269 292 283 288 288 284 SST (C) 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.7 24.2 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 113 109 104 99 98 97 97 99 101 102 102 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 53 55 52 51 50 49 46 46 40 35 30 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 24 29 33 21 29 26 27 12 -6 0 -9 -6 200 MB DIV -18 -31 -25 -8 -18 -11 1 -8 -19 -34 -11 -1 -14 LAND (KM) 1270 1312 1358 1411 1467 1599 1756 1919 2067 1987 1801 1618 1491 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.4 20.4 20.5 20.7 21.1 21.5 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.5 125.2 126.1 126.9 128.6 130.3 132.1 134.0 135.8 137.6 139.4 140.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. -13. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 1. 3. 2. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -12. -12. -10. -10. -11. -9. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 09/02/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 09/02/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY