* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* HENRIETTE EP112007 09/02/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 75 80 88 90 90 82 75 68 61 53
V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 75 80 88 90 90 82 75 68 45 40
V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 63 64 65 67 67 64 59 52 46 34 34
SHEAR (KTS) 2 1 7 4 6 1 1 5 8 6 10 11 16
SHEAR DIR 114 360 16 27 335 154 273 207 254 231 269 231 249
SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.3 26.4 25.4 24.5 23.9 23.6 24.3 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 149 146 144 136 127 116 107 100 97 105 159
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.0 -51.8 -51.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 7 4 5 2
700-500 MB RH 84 83 82 82 80 76 71 66 66 66 60 57 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 19 18 20 20 21 21 22 20 19 18 17 14
850 MB ENV VOR 42 45 41 35 32 42 43 43 30 27 15 7 18
200 MB DIV 54 70 73 34 45 62 13 50 14 15 5 22 5
LAND (KM) 173 221 269 309 358 291 226 213 127 147 22 -9 48
LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.5 20.3 21.5 22.8 24.1 25.4 26.7 28.2 29.9
LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.1 107.8 108.4 109.0 110.4 111.6 112.6 113.3 113.8 113.9 113.9 113.8
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -4. -7. -10. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 9. 7. 7. 5. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 27. 30. 29. 22. 15. 8. 0. -7.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 15. 20. 28. 30. 30. 22. 15. 8. 1. -7.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/02/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/02/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED