* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* FELIX AL062007 09/02/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 110 117 123 127 129 133 134 132 125 118 114 109 107
V (KT) LAND 110 117 123 127 129 133 134 132 125 65 51 46 44
V (KT) LGE mod 110 119 124 126 127 128 128 127 123 65 54 65 74
SHEAR (KTS) 9 4 1 3 3 5 2 7 9 9 7 16 11
SHEAR DIR 34 118 71 30 103 344 6 20 53 8 6 334 2
SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.3 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 149 149 150 151 155 156 154 151 156 157
ADJ. POT. INT. 153 154 153 153 151 151 149 148 148 146 142 143 142
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6
TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 10 10 12 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 13
700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 59 61 58 65 65 66 64 63 64 63
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 10 8 9 9 9 8 8
850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 52 50 52 31 34 17 17 12 20 16 14
200 MB DIV 54 36 46 36 37 29 48 22 29 10 37 35 16
LAND (KM) 118 190 326 372 332 221 33 103 42 -137 98 238 248
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.7 20.6 21.4
LONG(DEG W) 71.1 72.9 74.7 76.4 78.0 81.2 84.2 86.3 87.8 89.5 91.7 93.4 94.7
STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 16 16 15 13 9 9 11 11 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 61 71 68 52 71 80 73 82 67 9999 17 31 53
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 7. 6. 0. -8. -15. -21. -26. -30. -35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14.
PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 21. 15. 9. 5. 1. -1.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 13. 17. 19. 23. 24. 22. 15. 8. 4. -1. -3.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/02/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 4.9 Prob of RI= 42% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/02/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY