* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL982007 09/02/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 29 32 37 40 43 45 47 47
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 29 32 37 40 43 45 47 47
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 25 27 30 34 40 45
SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 17 22 24 16 14 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 111 95 89 95 108 126 104 80 81 54 N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 130 132 137 140 141 140 137 134 134 134
ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 125 127 130 135 137 139 137 133 130 129 129
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 55 52 50 50 48 50 47 51 51 56 N/A N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 23 16 4 -10 -29 -26 -14 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 25 20 19 2 -6 -13 -28 -29 -20 -12 N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1561 1475 1390 1302 1216 1048 930 839 774 746 754 784 767
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.5 10.4 10.5 10.9 11.4 12.1 12.7 13.5
LONG(DEG W) 39.2 40.1 40.9 41.8 42.6 44.3 45.8 47.3 48.8 50.3 51.7 53.1 54.5
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 7 7 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 9 11 13 17 20 26 34 38 31 34 36 38 44
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 26.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 09/02/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 09/02/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY