* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/02/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 71 75 79 82 78 74 71 66 60 55 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 71 75 79 82 78 74 70 48 45 34 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 62 63 64 65 64 61 57 54 40 42 34 SHEAR (KTS) 1 5 3 2 2 4 3 3 2 4 6 11 13 SHEAR DIR 117 48 49 228 197 130 150 201 29 208 249 234 217 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.1 26.4 25.8 25.8 26.5 27.9 30.0 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 149 145 141 134 126 119 120 128 143 164 169 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 85 83 81 80 78 72 71 69 68 62 60 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 19 20 21 20 22 20 19 18 16 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 37 35 38 38 49 54 43 25 18 11 -14 0 7 200 MB DIV 80 83 46 48 44 15 -3 14 -4 24 0 27 41 LAND (KM) 188 229 271 310 321 202 166 147 57 18 -29 47 -59 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.6 20.1 21.1 22.0 23.0 24.2 25.7 27.5 29.0 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.2 107.9 108.6 109.2 110.3 111.3 111.9 112.1 112.3 112.7 112.7 112.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 4. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 19. 16. 12. 7. 1. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 18. 14. 11. 6. 0. -5. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/02/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/02/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED