* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* FELIX AL062007 09/03/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 145 155 155 152 149 143 139 133 120 108 105 107 112
V (KT) LAND 145 155 155 152 149 143 139 133 92 49 50 52 57
V (KT) LGE mod 145 157 158 155 150 142 136 134 101 50 63 73 81
SHEAR (KTS) 5 0 4 0 2 4 3 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 50 7 344 251 213 2 121 47 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 149 149 149 152 155 157 152 153 158 158
ADJ. POT. INT. 153 152 153 153 150 146 148 149 150 144 143 146 143
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 12 12 10 12 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 63 63 65 68 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 46 44 42 48 39 34 30 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 40 39 30 29 29 24 25 13 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 201 332 365 335 365 108 48 139 -63 -34 177 273 125
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.8 20.2 21.2 21.8
LONG(DEG W) 73.0 74.7 76.4 78.1 79.8 82.5 84.7 86.8 88.8 90.8 92.5 94.3 96.0
STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 15 12 11 10 11 11 10 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 72 68 52 73 86 22 78 80 9999 9999 23 43 88
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -16. -30. -41. -52. -58. -64. -71.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 19.
PERSISTENCE 7. 5. -2. -7. -12. -10. -6. -12. -16. -14. -8. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 9. 9. 7. 4. -2. -6. -12. -25. -37. -38. -36. -32.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 10. 10. 7. 4. -2. -6. -12. -25. -37. -40. -38. -33.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/03/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 55.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/03/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY