* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL982007 09/03/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 33 35 35 37 38 39
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 33 35 35 37 38 39
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 24 25 27 30 32 34
SHEAR (KTS) 16 20 23 24 23 13 13 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 96 90 97 109 120 108 105 67 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 128 128 129 131 133 133 133 130 131 130 132
ADJ. POT. INT. 120 124 124 124 125 127 128 128 127 125 125 124 125
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 48 48 47 47 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 20 8 -3 -15 -16 4 14 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 14 9 -1 -3 0 -29 -26 -29 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1549 1473 1398 1333 1270 1150 1074 1000 958 923 918 932 906
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.6
LONG(DEG W) 39.2 40.0 40.8 41.6 42.3 43.8 45.1 46.6 47.9 49.3 50.7 52.2 53.6
STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 10 11 13 16 17 17 21 29 30 29 33 37 40
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 10. 10. 12. 13. 14.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 09/03/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 09/03/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY