* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* HENRIETTE EP112007 09/03/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 72 75 81 82 80 77 75 74 69 62
V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 72 75 81 82 63 52 42 32 28 28
V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 62 63 64 65 65 52 40 40 31 28 28
SHEAR (KTS) 3 5 1 3 1 4 1 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 17 26 133 250 236 262 129 204 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.2 27.0 27.5 28.8 30.6 27.3 20.5 18.6
POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 144 141 135 133 138 153 173 139 68 63
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.1 -51.7 -51.0 -51.9 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 8 6 8 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 85 83 83 77 74 68 65 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 19 19 20 20 20 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 33 42 43 50 51 37 36 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 87 51 47 43 70 -13 24 -26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 201 219 241 284 275 111 52 -30 3 -51 -189 -451 -814
LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.9 23.2 24.7 26.3 28.9 32.0 34.8 38.1
LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.3 107.8 108.4 109.0 110.0 110.8 111.2 111.4 111.3 111.3 111.0 110.2
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 10 14 14 16 16
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 9. 9. 3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 20. 18. 16. 14. 14. 9. 2.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 15. 21. 22. 20. 17. 15. 14. 9. 2.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/03/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
Scaled RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/03/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY