* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* FELIX AL062007 09/03/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 145 151 152 150 148 144 139 135 124 116 112 110 108
V (KT) LAND 145 151 152 150 148 144 126 123 61 45 41 38 36
V (KT) LGE mod 145 151 151 148 144 137 127 130 65 47 59 70 80
SHEAR (KTS) 1 3 3 6 6 4 6 4 11 9 9 8 24
SHEAR DIR 7 322 348 264 324 37 318 278 328 325 328 310 1
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 151 150 150 151 155 160 157 159 160 158 156
ADJ. POT. INT. 155 153 153 152 151 148 150 154 150 152 151 146 141
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 12 12
700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 65 62 67 67 68 68 65 62 65 61
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 10 11 11 8 7 7 9 7 5 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 58 53 45 38 31 21 23 23 33 43 32
200 MB DIV 30 21 30 23 27 36 32 51 47 65 27 46 -1
LAND (KM) 320 389 369 371 203 2 45 23 -169 11 163 124 9
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.8 20.8 21.7
LONG(DEG W) 74.9 76.6 78.2 79.8 81.3 84.1 86.1 88.0 89.9 91.9 94.0 95.7 97.2
STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 14 12 10 10 10 11 10 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 62 51 69 82 80 70 79 84 9999 36 33 54 62
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -5. -16. -29. -40. -51. -56. -62. -69.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13.
PERSISTENCE 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -6. -4. -7. -9. -8. -4. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 7. 5. 1. -4. -8. -20. -28. -31. -33. -36.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 7. 5. 3. -1. -6. -10. -21. -29. -33. -35. -37.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/03/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/03/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED