* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/03/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 61 63 67 68 71 69 64 44 29 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 61 63 67 57 53 50 33 29 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 54 54 55 55 49 45 48 35 29 27 28 SHEAR (KTS) 7 2 4 2 2 3 5 5 12 23 35 37 61 SHEAR DIR 36 330 337 338 155 285 213 238 227 245 265 272 273 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.4 29.2 30.6 29.8 22.9 19.7 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 144 141 138 135 137 156 172 165 93 63 63 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -51.6 -53.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 3 4 0 700-500 MB RH 83 82 78 74 69 68 62 61 56 56 44 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 18 17 19 15 13 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 39 42 46 46 34 20 12 26 17 43 4 1 200 MB DIV 48 46 40 56 13 -6 14 -1 32 0 -34 -8 -17 LAND (KM) 228 246 283 272 195 46 -20 22 0 -236 -409 -700 -999 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.2 22.7 24.4 26.2 28.0 30.5 33.6 36.4 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.9 108.4 109.0 109.5 110.4 111.1 111.1 110.9 110.3 109.8 108.9 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 11 14 15 16 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 12. 15. 11. 5. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 0. -7. -19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. -1. -5. -15. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 17. 15. 10. -10. -26. -41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 13. 16. 14. 9. -11. -26. -42. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/03/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/03/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY