* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * FELIX AL062007 09/03/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 145 146 149 151 151 151 146 140 132 125 118 113 107 V (KT) LAND 145 146 149 151 151 81 76 44 32 31 23 23 25 V (KT) LGE mod 145 143 141 139 138 77 83 50 34 37 48 38 30 SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 3 7 7 5 9 5 4 5 12 12 14 SHEAR DIR 334 337 278 339 10 55 52 305 342 306 12 338 13 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 157 157 161 164 161 157 154 153 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 159 159 159 158 159 161 156 149 144 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -53.4 -52.5 -53.2 -52.5 -53.4 -52.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 12 11 10 12 9 11 8 12 9 14 10 700-500 MB RH 62 66 66 65 67 69 69 70 69 70 70 69 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 54 48 35 30 37 25 20 16 34 32 50 38 200 MB DIV 22 27 10 15 17 52 57 42 39 55 24 54 14 LAND (KM) 390 389 312 150 13 -21 39 -179 -77 53 30 -79 -208 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.9 17.9 18.7 19.1 19.9 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 76.9 78.6 80.3 81.8 83.3 86.0 88.2 90.4 92.4 94.2 95.6 97.4 99.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 12 11 11 10 8 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 53 76 80 65 18 9999 77 9999 9999 39 51 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 145 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -10. -23. -36. -47. -54. -61. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 5. 8. 11. 11. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 6. 6. 1. -5. -13. -20. -27. -32. -38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 6. 6. 1. -5. -13. -20. -27. -32. -38. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/03/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/03/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY