* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982007 09/03/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 25 27 31 33 33 36 38 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 25 27 31 33 33 36 38 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 22 22 23 24 25 27 28 30 SHEAR (KTS) 25 27 26 21 18 17 11 12 16 15 16 16 12 SHEAR DIR 103 118 121 127 113 101 81 89 65 96 69 106 80 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 129 128 128 127 127 126 128 129 131 134 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 125 124 123 122 121 121 120 122 124 125 129 133 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 53 52 51 54 58 55 55 49 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -15 -9 0 7 21 25 24 17 10 10 5 0 200 MB DIV -9 -6 -6 -13 -30 -6 -22 -17 -26 0 -7 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 1464 1397 1331 1282 1234 1173 1121 1113 1084 1071 1069 1088 998 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.8 11.1 11.4 12.1 12.7 13.5 14.2 15.1 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 39.8 40.5 41.2 41.8 42.3 43.3 44.3 45.3 46.5 47.9 49.4 51.2 53.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 16 19 21 18 18 21 24 26 30 40 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 9. 12. 14. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 6. 8. 8. 11. 13. 15. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 09/03/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 09/03/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY