* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/03/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 67 69 73 72 72 70 64 52 34 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 67 69 73 60 50 42 32 28 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 62 63 64 64 54 41 43 32 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 3 3 1 2 4 1 3 3 12 14 26 41 63 SHEAR DIR 26 333 294 186 242 97 223 209 247 259 261 252 268 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.9 29.1 30.8 29.8 24.4 20.6 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 140 137 134 132 132 156 171 163 107 68 62 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 8 5 7 5 7 3 7 3 700-500 MB RH 81 77 75 69 67 65 63 63 60 52 46 43 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 17 18 18 19 18 17 14 11 9 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 43 46 48 36 32 7 3 11 17 32 43 49 200 MB DIV 41 41 52 14 -18 37 -11 13 0 20 -13 -12 17 LAND (KM) 289 330 262 183 127 73 -32 7 -21 -187 -316 -547 -813 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.3 21.9 23.3 25.0 26.9 28.8 30.8 32.9 35.0 37.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.9 109.4 110.0 110.6 111.2 111.8 111.8 111.6 111.0 110.4 109.4 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 7. 10. 7. 1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 4. -3. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -10. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 11. 16. 15. 16. 13. 7. -6. -24. -43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 12. 12. 10. 4. -8. -26. -45. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/03/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/03/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY