* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FELIX AL062007 09/03/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 128 132 135 139 136 130 126 119 112 106 98 V (KT) LAND 125 124 128 132 93 68 65 38 30 27 25 26 27 V (KT) LGE mod 125 119 117 117 86 61 75 42 31 34 34 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 9 8 9 8 7 6 8 13 16 20 20 SHEAR DIR 6 301 329 344 356 7 4 341 6 8 22 14 28 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 157 158 162 164 159 159 156 154 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 157 158 158 158 158 158 154 152 146 143 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 11 10 12 10 10 9 11 10 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 65 62 67 67 69 70 74 76 71 72 69 68 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 14 13 14 13 11 9 8 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 44 39 36 27 23 24 16 11 9 21 31 47 33 200 MB DIV 27 12 33 49 62 76 42 32 32 38 26 26 37 LAND (KM) 414 328 172 21 -56 10 3 -201 -97 0 -3 -121 -261 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.8 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 80.2 81.6 83.0 84.4 86.9 88.7 90.7 92.9 94.7 96.0 97.8 99.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 10 9 11 10 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 83 86 81 13 9999 83 85 9999 9999 35 45 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 145 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 7. 5. -2. -12. -21. -30. -36. -41. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 3. 6. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3. -1. 1. 2. 1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 2. 6. 9. 13. 9. 3. 0. -5. -11. -17. -26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 3. 7. 10. 14. 11. 5. 1. -6. -13. -19. -27. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/03/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/03/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY