* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL992007 09/03/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 51 51 51 50 52 51 50
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 51 51 51 39 31 34 33
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 36 39 41 42 35 30 32 33
SHEAR (KTS) 15 20 17 19 16 23 21 31 25 27 21 21 17
SHEAR DIR 295 306 310 300 298 286 292 312 309 319 319 334 346
SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.3 30.5 30.5
POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 162 160 160 160 161 162 166 169 168 167
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 133 133 131 130 132 135 137 140 144 146 143
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 10 9 10 8 10 9 10 8 9
700-500 MB RH 53 50 47 46 43 36 38 40 42 44 48 51 54
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 7 8 9 11 12 9 10 9 11 12 13
850 MB ENV VOR -32 -33 -21 -7 -5 1 -18 -46 -46 -72 -46 -49 -20
200 MB DIV 6 -2 -12 1 20 -7 -10 -8 -17 0 -17 11 -8
LAND (KM) 273 296 300 301 307 292 249 180 59 -53 -13 43 71
LAT (DEG N) 30.7 30.4 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2
LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.3 78.1 77.9 77.7 77.7 78.1 78.8 80.1 81.5 82.6 83.5 84.0
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 6 6 4 3 2
HEAT CONTENT 58 56 54 50 45 44 43 51 60 9999 29 31 30
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 6. 3. 0. -1. -3. -5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 27. 26. 27. 26. 28. 27. 28.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 26. 26. 26. 25. 27. 26. 25.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/03/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/03/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY