* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/03/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 66 67 68 65 64 61 48 33 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 66 67 68 47 50 35 29 28 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 65 66 65 46 51 36 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 3 2 2 2 3 6 7 12 15 24 29 49 65 SHEAR DIR 14 64 181 235 206 188 198 213 191 244 254 263 262 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.5 28.5 30.5 30.8 27.0 22.7 20.6 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 140 139 137 139 149 171 172 134 90 69 64 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -50.4 -50.7 -51.2 -51.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 3 0 700-500 MB RH 79 77 70 68 66 61 60 57 54 45 44 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 18 16 14 11 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 45 47 39 38 26 5 26 6 28 28 6 -35 200 MB DIV 33 52 38 -18 -15 9 -17 29 52 -32 21 33 -12 LAND (KM) 274 289 212 128 69 4 -18 29 -134 -292 -525 -811 -999 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.9 25.8 27.8 30.0 32.0 33.8 36.0 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.8 109.3 109.9 110.4 110.9 111.3 111.3 111.2 110.1 108.4 106.5 104.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 12. 7. 1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 4. -2. -12. -26. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -17. -21. -20. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 11. 13. 10. 9. 5. -9. -24. -40. -57. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 5. 4. 1. -12. -27. -42. -60. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/03/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/03/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY