* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FELIX AL062007 09/04/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 113 117 123 129 129 123 117 110 106 100 95 V (KT) LAND 115 112 99 74 55 40 34 29 28 25 25 26 26 V (KT) LGE mod 115 108 105 72 53 38 36 29 28 29 29 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 8 4 1 4 5 15 16 21 16 22 22 SHEAR DIR 307 320 1 67 22 15 299 1 3 352 358 24 53 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 156 157 161 164 162 156 156 155 153 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 159 156 154 158 161 157 148 147 145 144 140 137 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.7 -52.6 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 11 13 12 10 12 9 12 9 14 10 15 700-500 MB RH 65 64 68 68 71 71 70 67 67 63 60 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 9 9 9 9 9 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 18 12 19 22 7 5 3 12 23 45 26 25 200 MB DIV 17 17 32 60 78 33 70 33 40 60 28 7 26 LAND (KM) 301 139 -21 -81 -70 -1 -116 -144 -55 -3 -71 -194 -281 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.1 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 80.4 81.9 83.4 84.5 85.6 87.7 89.9 91.7 93.3 95.0 97.0 98.8 100.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 86 64 9999 9999 9999 83 9999 9999 9999 39 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 2. -7. -15. -23. -28. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -2. 0. 1. 1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -1. 3. 9. 15. 14. 8. 1. -4. -7. -13. -19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -2. 2. 8. 14. 14. 8. 2. -5. -9. -15. -20. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/04/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/04/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY