* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 09/04/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 48 51 52 54 56 56 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 48 51 52 43 33 35 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 35 37 33 29 32 33 SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 14 12 18 21 26 19 24 18 19 25 22 SHEAR DIR 305 313 306 287 273 294 282 304 305 346 318 347 2 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 161 158 158 161 162 162 166 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 133 133 129 128 133 137 139 141 144 147 148 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.9 -54.4 -54.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 48 48 46 41 38 38 36 37 39 41 42 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -15 14 3 5 19 -13 -33 -38 -50 -46 -39 -33 200 MB DIV -9 -4 4 20 -1 25 -33 17 -43 11 -29 -23 -26 LAND (KM) 343 353 367 388 412 400 351 247 92 -39 -45 52 138 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 77.5 77.3 77.0 76.7 76.4 76.5 77.0 78.0 79.6 81.0 82.2 83.2 84.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 4 2 1 3 6 7 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 56 54 54 53 51 53 57 55 59 9999 9999 33 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 27. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 31. 31. 30. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/04/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/04/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY