* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/04/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 73 75 73 69 64 57 49 33 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 73 75 60 58 46 33 29 27 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 69 69 55 62 56 36 30 28 27 28 SHEAR (KTS) 2 2 3 2 0 1 4 4 14 25 35 52 59 SHEAR DIR 345 266 233 220 142 205 109 209 211 238 245 262 268 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 28.1 29.3 30.8 30.0 24.6 20.5 19.3 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 142 141 138 145 158 172 166 110 66 61 60 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -50.9 -51.6 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 5 7 4 8 3 5 1 3 700-500 MB RH 76 71 70 67 62 60 60 60 48 44 42 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 18 19 16 13 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 45 38 34 24 16 14 8 17 16 23 8 -28 200 MB DIV 43 39 -7 -4 27 -20 15 -3 27 -14 11 -9 -8 LAND (KM) 302 244 167 72 37 -1 22 -33 -211 -332 -551 -752 -928 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.3 23.0 24.5 26.2 28.3 30.6 32.8 35.1 37.1 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.0 109.4 110.0 110.5 110.8 111.1 110.9 110.7 110.1 109.5 109.2 108.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 8 8 9 11 11 12 11 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 8. 1. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 7. -1. -11. -23. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -14. -20. -20. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 4. -1. -8. -16. -31. -48. -64. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 4. -1. -8. -16. -32. -48. -64. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/04/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/04/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY