* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FELIX AL062007 09/04/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 138 138 140 141 137 134 127 115 105 101 97 95 V (KT) LAND 135 138 91 63 48 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 135 139 105 70 52 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 5 1 4 8 8 12 20 12 20 13 18 SHEAR DIR 319 355 59 85 2 79 10 30 9 358 352 15 74 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 161 164 166 160 158 157 155 151 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 158 159 159 162 163 155 152 148 144 140 136 132 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 13 12 11 11 9 11 10 12 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 64 65 68 72 69 69 70 64 66 60 61 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 20 21 35 24 15 22 14 39 48 61 34 62 200 MB DIV 36 30 48 78 56 42 38 33 32 53 39 24 10 LAND (KM) 140 0 -109 -102 -56 -19 -223 -121 -15 -45 -153 -254 -277 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.3 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 81.9 83.2 84.5 85.7 86.8 89.0 91.0 92.8 94.7 96.4 98.1 99.6 100.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 67 11 9999 9999 9999 84 9999 9999 34 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 3. -5. -18. -29. -39. -45. -52. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 7. 9. 6. 2. -5. -17. -28. -32. -36. -39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 3. 5. 6. 2. -1. -8. -20. -30. -34. -38. -40. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/04/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/04/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY