*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *  FELIX       AL062007  09/04/07  06 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   135   138   138   140   141   137   134   127   115   105   101    97    95
V (KT) LAND      135   138    91    63    48    36    30    28    27    27    27    27    27
V (KT) LGE mod   135   139   105    70    52    37    30    28    27    27    27    27    27

SHEAR (KTS)        8     8     5     1     4     8     8    12    20    12    20    13    18
SHEAR DIR        319   355    59    85     2    79    10    30     9   358   352    15    74
SST (C)         29.2  29.3  29.4  29.5  29.7  29.8  29.5  29.4  29.3  29.2  29.0  29.0  29.0
POT. INT. (KT)   157   158   159   161   164   166   160   158   157   155   151   150   149
ADJ. POT. INT.   159   158   159   159   162   163   155   152   148   144   140   136   132
200 MB T (C)   -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.3 -52.4
TH_E DEV (C)      13    11    13    12    11    11     9    11    10    12    11    12    12
700-500 MB RH     64    65    68    72    69    69    70    64    66    60    61    61    60
GFS VTEX (KT)     12    10     9     9     9     8     8     7     6  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    27    20    21    35    24    15    22    14    39    48    61    34    62
200 MB DIV        36    30    48    78    56    42    38    33    32    53    39    24    10
LAND (KM)        140     0  -109  -102   -56   -19  -223  -121   -15   -45  -153  -254  -277
LAT (DEG N)     14.3  14.5  14.6  14.9  15.2  15.8  16.6  17.4  18.2  18.9  19.7  20.3  21.0
LONG(DEG W)     81.9  83.2  84.5  85.7  86.8  89.0  91.0  92.8  94.7  96.4  98.1  99.6 100.3
STM SPEED (KT)    14    13    12    12    11    11    10    10     9     9     8     6     4
HEAT CONTENT      67    11  9999  9999  9999    84  9999  9999    34  9999  9999  9999  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16      CX,CY: -15/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND: 115            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  626  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  15.0 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  97.0 (MEAN=69.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  11.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   3.   5.   6.   3.  -5. -18. -29. -39. -45. -52. -59.
  VERTICAL SHEAR        -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -2.   1.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   4.
  PERSISTENCE            3.   2.   0.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -4.  -2.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -7.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       4.   5.   7.   9.   6.   2.  -5. -17. -28. -32. -36. -39.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV       -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT      -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   3.   5.   6.   2.  -1.  -8. -20. -30. -34. -38. -40.

   ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX   AL062007 FELIX      09/04/07  06 UTC **
                    ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  20.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.3 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  49.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  24.5 Range:  8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  76.2 Range: 57.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.6
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  15.0 Range: 37.5 to   5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.6
 
 Scaled RI index=    4.6 Prob of RI=  35% is   2.9 times the sample mean(12%)
 Discrim RI index=   4.1 Prob of RI=  24% is   1.9 times the sample mean(12%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX      09/04/07  06 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY