* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 09/04/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 46 50 51 54 55 56 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 46 50 51 38 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 36 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 14 19 23 16 27 18 21 17 17 13 19 SHEAR DIR 309 302 293 279 289 281 314 309 321 335 340 7 358 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 158 158 157 160 162 162 162 167 168 167 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 129 128 128 132 136 138 137 139 138 137 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 47 46 41 39 38 36 34 37 36 42 43 45 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 15 12 13 11 13 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -13 13 5 3 13 13 -13 -11 -35 -13 -27 -42 -71 200 MB DIV -3 -2 18 2 17 4 -6 0 12 -1 7 -14 1 LAND (KM) 383 399 418 420 422 382 303 164 29 -68 -71 -50 -62 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 76.9 76.7 76.4 76.4 76.3 76.7 77.5 78.9 80.3 81.3 81.9 82.1 82.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 1 3 5 6 5 4 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 58 55 54 53 51 53 52 58 61 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 22. 25. 26. 30. 31. 32. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 21. 25. 26. 29. 30. 31. 27. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/04/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/04/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY