* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/04/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 70 70 68 59 58 56 46 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 62 65 63 48 34 29 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 70 58 66 58 37 30 28 27 27 28 SHEAR (KTS) 4 2 2 9 6 7 8 10 14 23 38 48 56 SHEAR DIR 356 323 343 12 87 97 124 150 208 226 244 250 252 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.8 30.0 31.1 30.8 28.5 23.5 20.8 19.8 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 146 149 152 165 171 171 149 98 69 60 59 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.7 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -52.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 6 7 5 8 6 5 4 5 3 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 64 62 60 60 58 45 43 37 39 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 17 16 13 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 32 30 39 14 11 8 28 -8 17 -15 19 200 MB DIV 38 -11 -9 35 26 -8 0 1 18 3 -1 24 6 LAND (KM) 254 174 96 -1 1 60 -39 -188 -362 -494 -678 -819 -955 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.2 24.0 25.7 27.6 29.5 31.4 33.4 35.3 36.9 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.1 109.3 109.7 110.0 110.4 110.2 109.7 109.2 108.5 107.7 107.5 107.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 9 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 15. 10. 3. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 2. -6. -16. -28. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. -6. -16. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. -3. -5. -7. -16. -33. -50. -65. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -6. -7. -9. -19. -35. -52. -67. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/04/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/04/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY