* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FELIX AL062007 09/04/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 143 143 143 141 138 130 122 109 101 97 97 98 V (KT) LAND 140 92 63 47 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 140 106 70 51 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 6 3 5 8 6 14 15 17 8 12 8 11 SHEAR DIR 337 357 342 7 53 53 29 18 24 56 30 27 37 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 161 164 168 166 164 167 163 161 157 155 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 155 159 162 166 162 158 160 155 151 145 143 140 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.8 -52.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -52.7 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 12 11 9 11 8 11 8 12 9 13 9 700-500 MB RH 68 67 74 70 75 73 72 71 66 66 66 68 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 6 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 14 10 24 21 24 20 15 23 28 51 45 73 71 200 MB DIV 24 61 82 72 71 70 50 61 56 45 19 46 32 LAND (KM) 0 -97 -172 -137 -121 -118 -148 -70 -83 -166 -178 -232 -277 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 83.2 84.3 85.4 86.5 87.5 89.6 91.4 93.1 94.6 96.2 97.3 98.4 99.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 2. -7. -19. -31. -41. -48. -54. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 2. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. -5. -7. -6. -3. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -9. -16. -29. -37. -40. -41. -40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -10. -18. -31. -39. -43. -43. -42. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/04/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/04/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY