* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 09/04/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 41 46 49 52 53 54 54 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 41 46 49 52 53 54 38 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 35 37 39 41 32 29 SHEAR (KTS) 18 13 19 23 18 26 20 23 14 20 16 19 20 SHEAR DIR 300 305 275 296 300 279 291 305 322 321 340 327 355 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 156 154 155 158 160 162 162 161 163 165 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 128 123 125 129 134 137 137 135 136 137 141 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 10 9 11 10 11 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 47 42 39 39 39 37 36 33 35 36 44 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 13 13 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 22 13 19 27 28 6 -3 -24 -33 -47 -44 -60 -92 200 MB DIV 6 16 -10 26 39 -19 5 -38 8 -18 14 -27 -22 LAND (KM) 477 508 539 539 539 520 446 312 190 84 10 -48 -68 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 75.8 75.5 75.1 75.1 75.1 75.3 76.0 77.3 78.5 79.6 80.4 81.1 81.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 2 0 0 2 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 54 52 53 53 53 53 52 60 58 58 58 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 22. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. 27. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/04/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/04/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY