* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/04/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 81 83 83 81 76 65 61 53 42 31 19 V (KT) LAND 75 79 66 73 73 70 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 75 80 70 75 78 83 48 33 29 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 1 3 0 1 2 1 1 12 12 20 22 30 41 SHEAR DIR 256 258 307 39 263 130 171 187 197 209 235 240 245 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.6 29.2 29.7 30.7 30.8 29.7 28.2 25.5 24.2 23.2 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 150 157 162 171 171 160 145 116 102 91 80 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.7 -50.7 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 -50.7 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 6 5 8 4 10 5 9 6 9 4 700-500 MB RH 70 69 64 60 57 63 61 58 51 49 46 43 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 17 18 17 13 10 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 34 32 42 29 20 20 21 22 16 24 21 45 200 MB DIV -14 -3 25 21 -9 24 10 32 -18 11 2 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 141 34 -19 48 50 9 -173 -318 -420 -527 -628 -632 -640 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.8 23.7 24.7 25.6 27.5 29.5 30.8 31.5 32.6 33.2 33.7 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.7 110.0 110.3 110.5 110.7 110.1 109.5 108.6 107.7 106.8 107.0 107.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 6 6 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 10. 6. 1. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 8. 5. 0. -5. -13. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -11. -21. -21. -20. -21. -20. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 14. 13. 9. -3. -8. -17. -29. -40. -52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 1. -10. -14. -22. -33. -44. -56. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/04/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/04/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY