* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * FELIX AL062007 09/04/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 77 77 80 82 88 89 88 91 97 97 99 97 V (KT) LAND 85 60 45 37 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 85 59 44 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 6 12 9 10 9 10 14 7 10 14 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 360 346 11 36 61 44 18 36 77 38 36 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 163 168 170 168 164 168 165 160 158 156 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 163 168 169 165 160 163 159 152 149 145 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 9 11 9 10 9 11 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 76 75 78 75 73 74 71 68 68 67 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 12 11 9 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 26 21 18 13 25 21 19 32 45 44 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 75 66 60 68 69 39 44 41 47 39 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -102 -180 -167 -138 -133 -137 -60 -51 -168 -221 -261 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.4 18.2 19.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.4 85.6 86.8 87.9 88.9 90.8 92.8 94.5 96.2 97.9 99.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 8. 5. 1. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -11. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -19. -15. -10. -6. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -8. -8. -5. -3. 3. 4. 3. 6. 12. 12. 14. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -8. -5. -3. 3. 4. 3. 6. 12. 12. 14. 12. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/04/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -50.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/04/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY