* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 09/04/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 45 52 56 64 67 69 68 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 45 52 56 64 67 69 68 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 38 43 49 54 57 58 SHEAR (KTS) 13 19 19 13 15 22 17 10 11 11 20 15 14 SHEAR DIR 306 264 270 258 224 240 229 240 150 130 117 126 131 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 156 156 154 154 156 158 160 162 162 161 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 130 129 125 126 131 133 134 136 136 134 125 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 45 41 42 45 42 36 34 36 40 40 44 48 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 16 17 17 16 17 16 18 18 19 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 16 8 22 23 16 15 35 11 35 7 11 -23 -28 200 MB DIV 12 4 32 41 59 9 20 8 32 19 21 -8 -1 LAND (KM) 619 668 705 708 713 732 709 585 478 404 332 200 70 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.5 30.6 31.9 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.3 73.8 73.2 72.8 72.4 72.4 73.2 74.5 75.7 76.6 77.4 77.8 77.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 2 2 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 47 48 47 48 49 45 46 51 48 54 69 80 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 3. 4. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 20. 27. 32. 40. 44. 46. 45. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 14. 20. 27. 31. 39. 42. 44. 43. 39. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/04/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/04/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY