* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* HENRIETTE EP112007 09/04/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 82 83 85 84 78 67 53 36 16 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 75 67 72 74 76 55 36 30 28 27 27 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 75 68 72 74 77 60 37 30 28 27 27 27 DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 2 2 2 5 10 17 24 33 43 46 N/A
SHEAR DIR 320 358 261 204 207 203 162 186 220 224 232 244 N/A
SST (C) 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.8 30.5 31.0 30.6 27.7 23.0 20.7 19.8 19.8 N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 154 163 170 171 171 141 91 67 58 54 N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.7 -52.2 N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 5 8 6 7 6 5 4 4 3 N/A
700-500 MB RH 68 64 62 60 59 59 58 50 46 40 39 48 N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 15 16 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 37 33 44 27 13 28 9 17 -10 34 -14 -7 N/A
200 MB DIV -7 28 11 3 -5 36 10 13 1 -3 5 4 N/A
LAND (KM) 57 -21 15 70 83 -22 -218 -329 -467 -571 -687 -696 N/A
LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.3 25.3 26.3 28.1 30.0 31.7 33.6 35.0 36.2 36.3 N/A
LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.8 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.4 110.1 109.6 109.0 109.0 108.8 108.8 N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 4 0 N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 6. -4. -13. -21. -22.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -5. -14. -24. -26.
PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -12. -18. -18. -17. -18. -17. -15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 4. -6. -20. -37. -57. -74. -77.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 8. 10. 9. 3. -8. -22. -39. -59. -75. -79.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/04/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/04/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY