* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * FELIX AL062007 09/05/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 38 33 30 30 34 41 45 52 60 70 80 86 V (KT) LAND 50 40 34 31 29 27 33 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 39 34 31 29 27 31 30 28 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 12 9 9 11 8 16 12 12 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 354 359 16 51 40 24 32 44 35 70 78 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 166 170 168 166 166 170 166 166 163 161 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 165 169 166 164 162 166 160 159 155 150 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.9 -53.0 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 11 11 8 11 8 12 9 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 79 77 76 75 73 68 68 65 68 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 9 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 10 10 7 8 11 8 13 38 33 42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 55 54 64 82 36 48 52 36 19 22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -194 -170 -137 -136 -104 -78 33 -29 -109 -113 -132 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.4 86.5 87.6 88.7 89.7 91.8 93.8 95.6 97.4 99.1 100.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 46 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -14. -23. -29. -33. -36. -36. -35. -32. -25. -17. -8. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -12. -17. -20. -20. -16. -9. -5. 2. 10. 20. 30. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -12. -17. -20. -20. -16. -9. -5. 2. 10. 20. 30. 36. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/05/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -55.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/05/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY