* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 09/05/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 36 42 47 53 58 64 65 65 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 36 42 47 53 58 64 65 65 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 40 47 53 58 62 SHEAR (KTS) 24 22 14 18 25 19 22 12 11 2 11 7 6 SHEAR DIR 266 263 268 236 246 254 270 283 246 170 174 122 123 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 153 154 158 158 160 161 161 162 162 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 125 123 123 125 131 133 134 133 134 135 135 133 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 44 45 45 43 38 36 36 39 38 40 45 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 17 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 13 24 25 18 11 31 18 31 36 25 8 -33 -33 200 MB DIV 2 18 31 55 18 18 -37 18 -7 15 -5 -11 0 LAND (KM) 659 662 665 663 661 651 526 404 330 283 249 234 143 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.7 29.5 30.4 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 73.6 73.4 73.2 73.3 73.3 73.9 75.1 76.3 77.1 77.7 78.3 78.9 79.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 0 0 2 4 5 4 3 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 48 49 50 49 49 49 50 59 62 52 42 51 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 18. 23. 28. 34. 40. 42. 41. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 11. 17. 22. 28. 33. 39. 40. 40. 37. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/05/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/05/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY