* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/05/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 73 74 70 63 50 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 73 63 40 31 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 69 62 39 30 28 27 27 28 29 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 5 4 5 6 9 18 31 44 47 61 68 N/A SHEAR DIR 331 257 244 225 133 167 178 221 235 248 253 266 N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.6 30.3 31.0 31.1 30.8 28.0 22.9 20.4 19.7 19.1 19.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 160 168 172 172 172 145 92 65 60 58 57 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -52.5 -53.5 -54.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 9 4 10 4 4 1 3 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 64 60 57 58 51 43 38 32 35 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 15 15 13 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 43 28 17 21 30 20 6 1 20 -2 -36 N/A 200 MB DIV 33 6 0 7 34 37 27 -9 -2 10 -9 1 N/A LAND (KM) 5 49 83 61 -24 -166 -355 -511 -764 -927 -999 -999 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.4 25.2 26.3 27.4 29.4 31.6 33.7 36.0 37.7 39.2 39.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.6 109.8 109.9 110.1 110.2 110.0 109.3 108.5 107.2 106.8 106.0 105.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 10 11 10 11 12 12 11 8 5 3 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 15. 11. 3. -6. -14. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. -8. -20. -34. -50. -54. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -4. -12. -18. -18. -18. -18. -19. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. -7. -19. -38. -59. -82.-101.-105. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 9. 5. -2. -15. -35. -58. -81. -99.-103. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/05/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 49% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/05/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY