* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* FELIX AL062007 09/05/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 22 17 15 DIS 19 28 35 40 50 60 70 77
V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 31 33 28 27 DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 10 8 9 12 15 18 18 15 N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 7 22 37 21 24 20 20 24 37 29 N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 166 169 169 167 166 166 169 167 165 165 N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 163 166 167 165 163 162 166 163 159 157 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 11 9 9 9 10 10 12 N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 74 79 76 76 71 73 71 69 69 65 N/A N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 22 15 11 10 10 12 5 7 19 22 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 49 40 59 73 68 60 54 49 46 29 N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) -177 -118 -111 -95 -46 -24 72 0 -71 -84 N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.4 N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 86.5 87.4 88.3 89.3 90.2 92.1 94.0 95.9 97.7 99.3 N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 46 43 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 37. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE -10. -17. -22. -27. -30. -29. -28. -26. -21. -15. -7. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -15. -15. -11. -2. 5. 10. 20. 30. 40. 47.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -13. -15. -15. -11. -2. 5. 10. 20. 30. 40. 47.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/05/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/05/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED