* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 09/05/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 48 55 59 61 59 59 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 48 55 59 61 59 59 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 42 47 51 53 55 SHEAR (KTS) 25 18 21 23 24 17 12 9 9 19 19 16 3 SHEAR DIR 259 254 224 220 225 227 236 160 130 114 103 129 148 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 154 155 156 158 160 162 162 163 160 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 124 124 125 128 131 133 134 135 136 136 136 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 45 44 40 40 39 35 32 36 36 41 40 44 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 16 15 17 16 18 17 16 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 19 26 16 18 26 45 25 44 18 9 -18 2 -6 200 MB DIV 8 20 39 20 23 -3 15 0 7 -5 3 5 11 LAND (KM) 688 698 708 710 713 659 537 426 355 312 235 156 212 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.5 29.0 29.9 31.1 32.6 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 72.7 72.6 72.5 72.7 72.8 73.7 74.9 76.1 77.0 77.8 78.4 77.7 74.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 1 2 3 5 5 5 5 6 7 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 51 51 50 48 47 49 52 56 53 52 68 45 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 24. 31. 35. 37. 36. 36. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 30. 34. 36. 34. 34. 33. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/05/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/05/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED