* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/05/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 63 60 58 52 36 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 55 44 32 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 60 48 33 29 27 27 28 29 30 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 5 4 7 15 22 41 51 55 81 70 N/A SHEAR DIR 247 224 238 127 155 186 202 226 250 249 254 270 N/A SST (C) 29.6 30.4 30.9 31.2 31.0 29.9 25.2 21.5 20.5 19.9 19.3 19.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 169 171 172 172 165 116 78 67 60 59 59 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -52.1 -52.7 -53.4 -54.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 8 8 6 8 7 4 1 3 0 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 59 56 53 42 36 27 30 43 51 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 12 13 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 24 12 14 29 11 22 -17 15 9 -29 -37 N/A 200 MB DIV 4 0 11 39 40 -5 -7 0 2 0 -2 5 N/A LAND (KM) 53 71 64 -30 -74 -297 -504 -723 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.5 26.3 27.4 28.5 30.6 32.7 34.9 37.2 38.9 40.5 40.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.0 110.1 110.1 110.1 109.6 108.0 106.7 104.5 103.7 102.5 101.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 12 12 14 12 9 6 5 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):349/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 13. 7. -2. -10. -17. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -14. -27. -47. -64. -70. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. -1. -3. -4. -10. -26. -47. -68. -95.-116.-121. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. -2. -5. -6. -13. -29. -49. -71. -97.-117.-123. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/05/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/05/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY