* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 09/05/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 56 62 63 62 61 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 56 62 63 49 35 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 34 38 43 48 42 32 36 SHEAR (KTS) 19 20 23 22 20 21 12 11 13 6 5 6 18 SHEAR DIR 255 225 215 218 210 220 198 170 141 153 63 256 302 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.8 27.8 26.4 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 151 150 151 156 157 158 156 148 133 117 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 124 121 123 130 133 133 131 122 109 97 87 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.0 -54.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 6 9 5 8 3 700-500 MB RH 47 44 43 40 41 36 38 40 42 47 55 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 18 16 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 33 21 29 36 47 35 23 -1 -25 -44 -26 11 7 200 MB DIV 18 33 16 17 27 -13 19 -4 7 -5 -9 7 -4 LAND (KM) 789 806 826 824 824 742 617 459 279 102 -36 -28 34 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.7 30.2 31.1 32.4 33.8 35.3 36.8 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 71.5 71.1 70.6 70.6 70.5 71.4 72.8 74.3 75.6 76.7 77.0 76.3 74.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 2 1 2 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 28 27 27 40 52 38 52 31 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 27. 32. 38. 39. 38. 38. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 31. 37. 38. 37. 36. 30. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/05/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/05/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY