* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/05/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 67 65 58 41 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 58 46 38 33 29 27 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 47 38 33 29 27 29 30 30 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 2 4 13 21 50 71 71 86 91 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 243 216 214 237 251 247 261 265 253 257 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 31.4 31.1 30.8 29.7 22.7 20.7 19.7 19.1 18.4 18.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 173 173 173 164 92 71 63 61 59 59 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -50.2 -51.5 -52.7 -53.4 -53.4 -54.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 10 7 6 11 3 5 0 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 60 60 59 53 45 33 38 38 51 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 12 12 29 36 28 3 -12 8 -20 -38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 1 28 23 12 13 -14 16 40 0 34 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 68 -3 -118 -238 -388 -726 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.8 28.1 29.5 30.8 34.1 36.9 40.3 42.1 43.8 44.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 109.7 109.4 108.8 108.2 106.1 104.5 101.5 99.4 98.2 96.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 16 17 18 16 11 7 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 1. -9. -18. -26. -32. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -15. -33. -57. -83. -93.-100. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 4. 9. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -6. -22. -47. -75.-103.-133.-143.-151. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 0. -7. -24. -49. -76.-105.-134.-144.-153. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/05/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/05/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY