* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 09/06/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 52 59 64 67 68 69 66 61 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 52 59 64 67 68 69 66 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 48 54 60 64 66 66 63 SHEAR (KTS) 28 24 19 18 19 9 11 12 12 5 1 18 25 SHEAR DIR 224 214 207 197 201 167 153 108 116 144 360 278 289 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.7 27.7 26.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 151 153 158 158 159 156 146 132 121 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 120 122 126 128 135 135 134 130 120 109 102 92 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.6 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 9 9 8 9 6 9 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 45 43 38 34 38 38 37 40 45 47 42 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 17 17 18 16 17 17 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 35 49 48 49 41 57 23 0 -18 -23 -1 -1 2 200 MB DIV 2 10 24 20 5 14 7 19 -3 6 6 -13 -44 LAND (KM) 868 887 905 891 878 763 610 430 276 124 75 195 288 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.8 31.0 32.4 33.9 35.4 36.9 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 69.5 69.4 69.9 70.3 71.8 73.8 75.1 75.7 75.7 75.1 73.6 71.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 3 4 5 8 9 8 8 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 24 27 28 40 45 45 53 27 11 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 23. 30. 35. 37. 39. 40. 37. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 29. 34. 37. 38. 39. 36. 31. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/06/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/06/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY