* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/06/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 65 64 62 47 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 47 38 33 30 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 48 38 33 30 28 28 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 18 20 23 46 63 58 72 83 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 243 229 246 254 254 265 276 262 259 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.8 29.9 27.1 23.9 21.0 20.5 20.1 19.5 20.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 166 139 105 75 69 62 60 64 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -51.7 -52.6 -53.6 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 9 10 3 5 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 58 57 52 47 38 42 43 48 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 34 32 15 19 5 -17 25 22 31 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 20 11 21 16 -10 31 25 17 2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 11 -135 -258 -451 -653 -967 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.9 29.3 30.6 32.0 33.4 36.3 39.5 41.2 42.7 42.3 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.9 110.5 110.1 108.4 106.6 104.6 99.9 97.4 95.8 92.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 20 19 20 19 11 9 12 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. -1. -10. -20. -29. -35. -36. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -15. -28. -45. -70. -84. -93.-101. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 7. 13. 13. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -5. -19. -39. -63. -87.-113.-128.-139.-148. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 0. -1. -3. -18. -38. -62. -86.-114.-129.-139.-148. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/06/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/06/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY