* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 09/06/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 47 52 57 59 58 52 45 34 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 47 52 57 59 58 52 45 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 50 53 50 44 38 SHEAR (KTS) 25 21 19 21 18 11 3 6 11 22 38 42 47 SHEAR DIR 223 217 206 215 217 197 175 155 265 282 299 311 320 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.3 25.1 22.3 20.8 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 148 151 154 148 141 128 106 89 82 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 119 121 126 130 126 118 107 91 78 72 73 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 46 42 41 38 38 39 38 40 44 52 52 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 15 15 17 17 17 15 13 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 47 29 28 20 -29 -33 -34 -25 -47 -38 -84 200 MB DIV 2 8 24 -4 2 4 -1 20 3 39 -19 -4 -42 LAND (KM) 883 890 897 867 838 685 482 278 190 191 181 279 300 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.9 32.5 34.3 36.2 38.3 40.0 40.6 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 69.4 69.2 69.4 69.6 70.8 72.0 73.2 73.7 72.7 70.3 67.4 65.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 3 5 8 10 10 10 12 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 23 23 17 18 1 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 28. 29. 28. 22. 16. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 22. 27. 29. 28. 22. 15. 4. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/06/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/06/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED