* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/06/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 20 21 21 19 40 54 61 81 77 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 225 228 236 252 247 266 265 257 251 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.8 29.9 27.5 25.2 23.5 21.1 21.1 21.0 20.5 21.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 165 140 117 99 74 73 69 64 79 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 8 10 6 6 3 7 2 2 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 59 56 53 50 47 44 47 53 63 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 34 15 17 17 -19 15 30 16 -12 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 4 24 31 12 26 21 25 6 26 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -160 -265 -322 -482 -644 -913 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.7 31.8 32.7 33.6 35.9 37.7 38.6 39.6 38.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.4 110.1 109.7 108.3 106.8 105.0 101.5 99.9 99.7 97.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 15 14 15 12 6 5 11 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. -1. -6. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. -2. -14. -34. -58. -71. -80. -88. PERSISTENCE -9. -15. -20. -24. -29. -31. -30. -27. -25. -23. -19. -14. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -19. -22. -31. -45. -61. -80.-102.-114.-119.-123. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -11. -13. -15. -23. -36. -53. -75. -99.-111.-115.-120. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/06/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/06/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY