* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 09/07/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 43 51 56 59 60 58 57 53 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 43 51 56 59 60 58 57 53 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 49 54 57 56 53 51 SHEAR (KTS) 25 20 11 20 16 14 6 4 16 14 15 14 25 SHEAR DIR 218 224 183 175 181 140 170 338 357 357 324 311 316 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.3 26.3 25.0 24.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 153 155 156 155 149 140 128 117 106 105 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 126 129 131 132 131 125 116 106 98 91 91 100 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.7 -55.4 -55.0 -55.3 -54.9 -55.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -55.0 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 6 7 5 4 0 1 700-500 MB RH 39 38 40 40 40 38 41 43 48 50 52 60 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 13 11 12 12 11 8 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 43 38 36 38 8 -14 -46 -72 -48 -79 -61 -46 -56 200 MB DIV -14 5 24 16 -6 -6 -30 -22 -14 -20 -5 -28 -44 LAND (KM) 954 929 885 811 737 551 362 200 182 293 356 455 542 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.9 31.3 32.8 34.4 36.2 37.7 38.7 39.4 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 69.9 70.2 70.7 71.2 72.3 73.4 74.1 73.8 71.8 68.9 65.3 61.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 5 7 8 9 8 9 10 11 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 33 31 39 33 30 7 4 3 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 20. 26. 30. 30. 29. 27. 24. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 13. 21. 26. 29. 30. 28. 27. 23. 17. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/07/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/07/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY