* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 09/07/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 49 53 54 54 55 53 49 43 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 49 53 54 54 55 53 49 43 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 50 53 53 51 49 46 SHEAR (KTS) 13 19 13 11 14 2 19 18 17 21 33 47 34 SHEAR DIR 209 174 192 147 141 94 23 9 344 288 255 265 298 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 27.5 26.2 24.5 20.8 21.9 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 157 156 155 153 146 129 117 104 87 93 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 132 133 133 132 128 121 107 99 92 81 86 81 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.2 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -54.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 8 9 6 8 5 5 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 37 37 36 33 34 33 36 45 47 48 54 44 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 10 10 12 10 9 6 4 4 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 25 20 -5 -20 -20 -56 -80 -56 -63 -47 -31 -22 19 200 MB DIV 13 9 -12 -3 -8 -29 -31 -19 1 24 15 -12 -6 LAND (KM) 874 798 722 628 534 332 148 36 132 241 289 449 613 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.6 30.0 30.6 31.2 32.5 33.9 35.6 37.2 38.9 40.9 42.3 41.9 LONG(DEG W) 70.1 70.7 71.3 72.0 72.7 74.2 75.3 75.5 74.2 71.2 65.6 57.3 49.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 12 19 27 31 30 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 43 51 37 51 29 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 25. 25. 25. 26. 25. 21. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 23. 24. 24. 25. 23. 19. 13. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/07/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/07/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY