* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 09/07/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 48 51 51 53 54 54 52 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 48 51 38 35 36 36 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 36 30 41 44 46 46 SHEAR (KTS) 18 14 9 16 17 12 24 17 14 24 27 34 35 SHEAR DIR 162 187 155 125 128 41 48 355 323 297 293 297 302 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.1 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 158 157 158 158 150 137 123 123 122 119 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 135 136 135 135 133 124 113 106 111 111 105 97 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.6 -54.2 -54.7 -55.0 -55.4 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 9 9 8 8 6 9 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 37 36 31 35 33 34 38 47 46 56 56 47 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 12 11 11 8 5 4 3 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 18 -10 -16 -18 -29 -65 -61 -49 -52 -41 -61 -50 -37 200 MB DIV 4 -15 -5 -9 -19 -23 -10 -3 18 21 8 -15 -1 LAND (KM) 796 709 624 520 421 229 49 -70 0 337 522 729 833 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.9 30.3 30.9 31.4 32.5 33.7 35.1 36.5 37.7 38.9 39.2 39.2 LONG(DEG W) 70.8 71.7 72.5 73.5 74.5 76.3 77.6 77.8 75.8 71.2 64.2 57.6 52.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 9 7 8 15 24 27 22 19 HEAT CONTENT 32 47 47 35 43 59 27 9999 0 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 19. 21. 22. 24. 26. 25. 24. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 21. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. 17. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/07/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/07/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY