* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 09/08/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 53 57 61 63 63 66 64 59 54 45 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 53 57 61 47 34 38 36 31 26 18 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 49 53 56 63 50 35 40 44 46 43 39 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 16 14 9 21 16 6 14 25 53 55 59 SHEAR DIR 195 153 143 139 119 48 36 10 268 224 232 235 242 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.1 27.0 26.4 25.6 22.2 18.4 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 157 156 152 137 123 118 111 89 78 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 135 133 132 126 112 102 99 94 79 72 74 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.4 -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -55.7 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 9 9 5 7 6 6 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 35 29 32 32 34 36 46 49 47 58 48 45 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 10 7 5 6 5 6 9 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -15 -22 -32 -36 -70 -25 -47 -28 -8 -22 -24 -54 200 MB DIV -26 -7 -5 -14 -39 -22 3 0 30 57 8 0 14 LAND (KM) 689 567 448 356 270 85 -63 -56 141 263 195 202 201 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.8 31.4 31.9 32.4 33.5 35.1 36.2 37.0 38.2 40.0 41.7 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 71.7 72.8 73.9 74.9 75.8 77.3 77.7 76.5 74.2 71.8 69.8 65.9 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 9 9 7 7 8 11 11 14 19 21 HEAT CONTENT 47 35 41 51 55 28 9999 9999 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 23. 25. 25. 27. 25. 21. 16. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 23. 26. 24. 19. 14. 5. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 09/08/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 09/08/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY