* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GABRIELLE AL072007 09/08/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 55 58 60 62 64 63 60 55 47 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 55 58 46 51 53 52 50 44 36 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 49 52 56 61 55 58 60 59 54 48 43 SHEAR (KTS) 11 15 14 6 17 20 14 8 18 27 49 59 49 SHEAR DIR 158 139 139 116 36 42 350 309 248 231 223 235 262 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.7 27.3 26.3 25.5 23.3 19.1 20.6 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 156 146 127 116 110 96 79 84 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 133 132 129 119 106 97 93 84 73 76 74 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.4 -55.2 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 10 9 7 8 7 8 3 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 30 34 33 35 35 42 47 47 58 69 59 42 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 11 10 7 6 5 5 6 10 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -26 -34 -43 -77 -48 -52 -53 -27 0 19 -27 -64 200 MB DIV -6 -7 -17 -51 -23 -6 -11 38 55 56 8 -19 -22 LAND (KM) 570 467 368 283 185 44 -27 109 211 253 222 271 378 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.4 32.9 34.2 35.8 37.0 38.1 39.5 41.5 42.7 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.9 74.8 75.7 76.5 77.1 76.2 74.6 72.6 69.6 65.6 60.8 55.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 9 9 12 16 18 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 50 54 49 22 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 7. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 20. 22. 23. 25. 24. 21. 16. 10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 23. 20. 15. 7. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/08/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/08/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED