* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* GABRIELLE AL072007 09/08/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 50 52 53 53 55 59 55 45
V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 50 52 53 53 55 59 55 45
V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 43 45 47 51 54 55 55 54 52 48 43
SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 7 11 20 16 18 22 34 34 57 45 34
SHEAR DIR 136 139 118 44 23 20 337 280 262 241 224 238 249
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 27.8 26.7 25.9 24.4 23.6 23.0 18.1 15.1
POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 153 147 133 121 113 103 99 96 78 73
ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 131 127 121 110 102 96 89 89 87 73 70
200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.1 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 7 6 8 6 6 2 2 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 33 33 34 35 36 47 47 52 63 64 50 33 32
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 10 9 7 6 6 6 9 19 19 13
850 MB ENV VOR -13 -22 -25 -60 -81 -33 -52 -44 -19 12 39 39 48
200 MB DIV -3 -9 -45 -25 -42 -16 3 23 44 39 20 0 15
LAND (KM) 472 379 288 199 112 14 144 260 319 374 432 324 486
LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.8 32.4 33.1 33.8 35.2 36.7 38.0 39.0 40.2 41.8 43.8 46.1
LONG(DEG W) 73.8 74.6 75.3 75.8 76.3 75.9 74.2 72.0 69.1 64.6 58.6 52.6 46.8
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 9 11 11 15 21 24 24 23
HEAT CONTENT 38 48 52 44 25 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. 5. 5. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 20. 16. 8.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 15. 19. 15. 5.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/08/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/08/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED