* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GABRIELLE AL072007 09/08/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 44 46 47 49 50 57 52 46 40 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 44 46 47 49 50 57 52 46 40 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 45 49 51 53 53 53 50 47 45 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 10 19 21 20 15 17 28 23 41 38 37 SHEAR DIR 136 120 47 24 34 357 357 286 278 240 235 255 276 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.4 27.1 26.1 23.5 21.4 16.4 14.5 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 150 146 140 128 126 117 98 89 75 71 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 124 120 115 106 106 100 87 81 71 68 75 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 9 7 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 37 41 41 41 45 47 53 64 70 52 35 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 8 7 5 4 4 4 13 10 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -44 -68 -94 -76 -55 -71 -79 -60 30 83 55 11 200 MB DIV -14 -46 -36 -41 -14 0 8 19 18 39 58 7 10 LAND (KM) 401 312 223 156 99 143 303 401 389 317 154 361 815 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.5 33.1 33.8 34.5 35.9 36.9 38.1 40.0 42.4 45.4 46.3 45.7 LONG(DEG W) 74.1 74.7 75.2 75.3 75.4 74.3 72.2 69.2 65.3 60.3 54.4 48.4 42.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 9 12 16 20 24 23 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 45 34 21 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. 1. -2. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 18. 13. 7. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 17. 12. 6. 0. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/08/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/08/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY