* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GABRIELLE AL072007 09/09/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 39 40 39 39 53 55 55 55 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 32 38 40 39 39 53 53 53 53 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 34 31 37 39 40 39 37 33 39 42 SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 16 17 12 16 24 49 61 56 44 42 21 SHEAR DIR 118 39 24 30 5 330 274 271 266 231 240 242 248 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.5 26.5 24.7 20.7 18.3 16.5 14.5 13.0 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 144 137 129 119 105 84 78 75 72 70 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 125 118 112 107 100 91 77 73 71 68 67 69 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 6 8 7 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 38 41 45 50 51 55 68 71 56 32 27 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 8 26 29 28 33 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -77 -94 -58 -30 -50 -36 -9 45 92 160 202 203 200 MB DIV -42 -31 -32 -3 -1 -2 -1 27 62 66 46 16 19 LAND (KM) 254 166 79 24 -5 130 224 214 173 166 8 423 825 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.4 34.1 34.8 35.5 36.9 38.7 40.6 42.7 45.0 47.3 49.3 50.7 LONG(DEG W) 75.4 75.9 76.3 76.2 76.0 74.4 72.0 68.3 63.6 58.3 52.8 47.3 42.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 11 15 19 21 22 21 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 43 36 19 14 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 9. 7. 7. 6. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. 11. 12. 11. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 20. 22. 22. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 4. 4. 18. 20. 20. 20. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/09/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/09/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY